Future Home Demand Report
29 October 2023
Monash University’s Emerging Technologies Research Lab unveiled massive shifts in future household energy demands in a new report published. The pivotal study offers energy distribution networks an invaluable glimpse into the future – empowering them to sharpen their forecasts, develop future business plans, and ensure the lights stay on.
Researchers worked in-depth with 36 households and analysed 1,325 customer survey responses to develop the Future Home Demand Report
The increase in home-based care, a rise in the energy needs to support study and work from home and the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) are among the 51 specific trends found by the research to be affecting Victorians’ future energy needs.
“These trends represent both challenges and opportunities for the electricity network,” says Dr Kari Dahlgren, lead author of the study and researcher with the Monash Energy Institute.
“Consumers value energy for what it enables them to achieve in their everyday lives. Predictions of energy demand will be most accurate if they recognise these values, and this report helps outline what those motivations are.”
The research was commissioned partnership with CitiPower and Powercor as part of our consultation program informing regulatory reset proposals for the 2026-2031 period.
“This research is an evolutionary jump in how we model future electricity use,” says Ms Renate Vogt, General Manager, Regulation
“It has given us actionable insights that will benefit our customers across metropolitan, suburban and rural and regional locations.
“As the electrification of homes continues to grow, the trends point to a greater role for our networks and a greater dependence on their reliability.”
And with more of us working from home, peak demand trends are changing. Just under half of respondents (49.5%) do paid work from home at least one day a week, and nearly one in five are working from home all week.
Other trends identified in the report include the increased electrification of cooking, which will continue to accelerate in line with the mandatory electrification of new Victorian residential developments from 2024. Climate change will also impact future energy demands, as increasing temperatures and more frequent and more extreme weather events affecting household routines in the future.
“Traditional forecasting of customer behaviour has relied exclusively on historical trends. But customer behaviour is changing rapidly, and this report will greatly aid our forecasting to ensure we can adapt and respond to future customers’ needs,” says Ms Vogt.
“The energy sector is changing both in how we produce power and how we consume it. Traditionally most of the focus has been on the generation side, but only by understanding the trends in how energy is utilised at the consumer level can we successful transition to a low carbon economy,” says Associate Professor Roger Dargaville, Deputy Director of the Monash Energy Institute.
The Future Home Demand research was built on the methodology and process developed through the Digital Energy Futures Project (DEF), a partnership between Monash University, The Australian Research Council, Energy Consumers Australia, Ausgrid and AusNet Services.
CitiPower, Powercor and United Energy’s regulatory proposal for the 2026-2031 period are being developed through extensive engagement with the networks’ customers and communities. They will be submitted to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) for approval in January 2025.
